Author Archives: donshur@uga.edu
Cotton Marketing News– September 26, 2014
The last 2 weeks have not been pretty. Prices have tumbled to levels not seen in 5 years. Since recovering to 68 cents on September 11 and 12, prices (Dec14 futures) have lost over 6 ½ cents (10%) through yesterday—closing at 61.4 cents. Prices are up just a bit so far today. We all agree this is not a good time to be trying to sell cotton. Considering the fact that cotton was once at 80 cents or better, nothing will appear relatively attractive at this point; but growers nevertheless need to carefully consider their options. The big news events over the past week or more have been China. Details have begun to emerge about China’s price support policy and imports. The impact of these policies is unknown and we do not yet know full details. Both have been, at least initially, interpreted as negative for global and US cotton prices.Neither of these policies directly addresses the still-remaining elephant in the room—China’s looming 60+ million bale stockpile.
2013 Georgia Cotton Research-Extension Report
The 2013 Cotton Research and Extension Report is now available. This report presents results of research trials conducted during 2013 by University of Georgia researchers and Extension specialists. Click below and read further on how to view and download the Report.
Cotton Marketing News– September 11, 2014
Today’s crop estimate is 16.54 million bales—down almost 1 million bales from the August estimate. Acreage planted was reduced, abandonment was increased slightly, and yield was lowered. As a result of the smaller crop, projected US exports for the 2014 crop year were reduced 700K bales. Overall, the report is probably neutral to slightly bearish. There is likely some resistance at the 67 to 68 cent area. I don’t know that there are currently enough positives to break through and move closer to the 7’s; but hopefully today’s numbers will at least solidify the bottom and the trading range around 65 cents.
2014 Farm Bill Update: Acreage History for Base Reallocation
2014 Farm Bill Update: Acreage History for Base Reallocation
Under the 2014 Farm Bill, landowners will have a 1-time opportunity to reallocate bases and update payment yields of “covered commodities” on a farm. This includes all major row crops in Georgia, excluding cotton. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) sent out letters to farmers and landowners on July 28 notifying them of their planted and considered planted acreage history from 2008 to 2012. There is a 60 day deadline for reviewing the planting history. This is NOT a 60-day deadline for making the base reallocation/update decision. Within the 60-day period, farmers and landowners must only review the planted acreage history for accuracy. If there is any discrepancy or question about the acreage history, contact the local FSA office before the deadline to let them know you want to review the acreage history.
Cotton Marketing News– August 22, 2014
Prices Show Faint Signs of Life
Prices (Dec14 futures) appear to may have turned trend up, at least for the short-term. After trading in a narrow band between 63 and 65 cents since the most recent slide, Dec14 futures this week traded 3 consecutive days (Wednesday, yesterday, and today) above 65 cents.
Cotton Marketing News– August 12, 2014
August Numbers Likely Neutral to Bearish
Don Shurley
The 2014 US cotton crop has been revised upward by 1 million bales from the July estimate. The August USDA crop production and supply/demand numbers released today are the first estimates of the season based on actual producer survey.The August numbers are best described as a mixed bag. Aside from a major supply shock somewhere, prices likely have a rough road ahead. The US crop looks promising but the World and foreign situation is less known. Longer-term (into winter and spring 2015), the outlook will depend on the eventual US and World supply and trends in demand (US exports).
Cotton Marketing News– August 8, 2014
Prices Again Attempt to Consolidate
Don Shurley, University of Georgia
What will it take for prices (Dec14 futures) to finally find a level of support? By “support”, I mean a level of prices low enough that the majority of market sentiment will finally say “that’s enough” and turn the outlook more bullish that bearish. Since mid-late May, prices have broken sharply downward 3 times. The most recent time was July 23-July 31 when prices dropped from roughly 68 cents to just under 63 cents. Continue reading
Cotton Transition Assistance Program Enrollment Begins
Farmers can enroll in the Cotton Transition Assistance Program (CTAP) from Aug. 11, 2014 through Oct. 7, 2014. The program, created by the 2014 Farm Bill, provides interim payments to cotton producers during the 2014 crop year until the Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX), a new insurance product also created by the legislation, is available.
2013 Georgia Quality Cotton Awards
The 9th annual Georgia Quality Cotton Awards will be held January 22, 2014. Winners will be announced and recognized during lunch at the Georgia Cotton Commission Annual Meeting at the University of Georgia Tifton Conference Center. Click below to continue reading and to download the nomination form.
Cotton Marketing News– November 15, 2013
Cotton Marketing News is written biweekly by University of Georgia Cotton Economist, Don Shurley, and sponsored by Southern Cotton Growers, Inc. Click here to view and download the latest issue in PDF format or click on the link below to continue reading on-line.