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The Path to 70 Cents Still Negotiable- But Is Now a Rockier One
Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
University of Georgia
Growers waiting on 70 cents, some/most are still waiting while others may have taken some sort of action already at the 67 to 68-cent area. The goal of 70 cents is still possible but each passing day likely lowers the odds that we can get there—and that needs to be taken into account. Not all is lost—we just need to make sure we know what we’re doing, why, what our alternatives are, and act accordingly. The price outlook continues to be a mix of both potentially bearish and bullish factors.
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County agents, scouts, and consultants are reporting the naturally occurring fungus which causes aphid populations to crash on a more frequent basis. Each year aphid populations build and we anxiously await for the fungal epizootic or crash. We have very … Continue readingJuly 13, 2015
Prices Now Tracking Back Down the Same Row
University of Georgia
Dec15 futures “broke out” to the 68-cent level back on June 30th but have since retreated back to their previous old 62 to 67-cent range. Likely, prices are now even more firmly entrenched in a tighter band of mostly 64 to 67 cents. Prices will still move on US crop conditions and production estimates, export reports, and news of sales from China’s stockpile. In that regard, news this past week was a mixed bag but mostly, not good for prices. In short, USDA’s numbers released on Friday (July 10th) were very clearly not what the market was expecting.
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July 1, 2015
Acreage Estimate Comes in Low- But Now There’s Even More to the Story
June 30, 2015
The long-awaited and much anticipated first estimates of actual crop acres planted for 2015 are out. The estimate is 8.998 million acres; lower than even the lowest of most pre-report estimates. If realized, this would be the lowest US cotton plantings since 1983. Is this going to finally get the bulls going? Maybe. But, acres planted don’t make a crop. Acres harvested and yields make the crop. With currently very favorable moisture conditions across much of the Cotton Belt and should conditions continue favorable, this crop could yield high enough to offset some of this acreage decline.
Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here– http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn06302015.pdf to download and view in PDF format.May 27, 2015
Cotton Remains in the Range, but Tempts Downside Support
May 26, 2015
New crop Dec15 futures hover just above 64 cents. With the ceiling at 67 cents seemingly pretty firm and with the “uptrend of lows” if it holds, the price range is tightening. There are several uncertainties as we move forward and growers are asking the question “Are we going to reach 70 cents?” No one knows the answer to that question but there are several factors that will determine which way we go. The situation is volatile and yet unknown. Cotton production in 2015 will require patience and a clear understanding of the risks and careful evaluation of marketing tools and choices.
Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn05262015.pdf to download in PDF format.