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Cotton Marketing News– August 27, 2015

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Where Does This Wild Season Now Go From Here?

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics

Prices have been vulnerable to what seems to be a constant barrage of economic and policy forces.  Cotton growers, for the most part, have been patiently waiting on prices to reach 70 cents.  Given all the factors that have been in play, things could have turned out worse, but so far cotton seems to have weathered the storm.  Prices are not where we want them to be but so far we’ve stayed out of the 50’s. This week’s implosion was due to concern over China’s economy, losses in the Chinese stock market, and related fears and concerns that caused the US stock market to also tumble. All eyes continue to be on China mill use and crop size.  With the events of this week, everybody is “super sensitive” to China.  Sensitivities aside, the same issues still apply—prices will depend on China’s demand for imports (quality cotton more precisely).

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Cotton Marketing News– July 24, 2015

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The Path to 70 Cents Still Negotiable- But Is Now a Rockier One

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
University of Georgia

Growers waiting on 70 cents, some/most are still waiting while others may have taken some sort of action already at the 67 to 68-cent area. The goal of 70 cents is still possible but each passing day likely lowers the odds that we can get there—and that needs to be taken into account. Not all is lost—we just need to make sure we know what we’re doing, why, what our alternatives are, and act accordingly.  The price outlook continues to be a mix of both potentially bearish and bullish factors.

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Cotton Aphids “Crashing”

Posted on by Phillip Roberts

County agents, scouts, and consultants are reporting the naturally occurring fungus which causes aphid populations to crash on a more frequent basis.  Each year aphid populations build and we anxiously await for the fungal epizootic or crash.  We have very … Continue reading

Cotton Marketing News– July 13, 2015

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Prices Now Tracking Back Down the Same Row

Don Shurley

University of Georgia

Dec15 futures “broke out” to the 68-cent level back on June 30th but have since retreated back to their previous old 62 to 67-cent range. Likely, prices are now even more firmly entrenched in a tighter band of mostly 64 to 67 cents.  Prices will still move on US crop conditions and production estimates, export reports, and news of sales from China’s stockpile.  In that regard, news this past week was a mixed bag but mostly, not good for prices.  In short, USDA’s numbers released on Friday (July 10th) were very clearly not what the market was expecting.

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Cotton Marketing News– June 30, 2015

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Acreage Estimate Comes in Low- But Now There’s Even More to the Story

June 30, 2015
Don Shurley

The long-awaited and much anticipated first estimates of actual crop acres planted for 2015 are out.  The estimate is 8.998 million acres; lower than even the lowest of most pre-report estimates.  If realized, this would be the lowest US cotton plantings since 1983.  Is this going to finally get the bulls going?  Maybe.  But, acres planted don’t make a crop.  Acres harvested and yields make the crop.  With currently very favorable moisture conditions across much of the Cotton Belt and should conditions continue favorable, this crop could yield high enough to offset some of this acreage decline.

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