Author Archives: donshur@uga.edu

Cotton Marketing News– September 24, 2015

Cotton Reaches New Lows on Lack of Demand

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics

Undoubtedly, cotton prices are at a fork in the road. Will prices be able to hold the 60-cent level and perhaps eventually recover to move higher or will prices erode further into the 50’s? No one is sure of the answer but most seem to agree that until fresh/new buying appears, it is difficult to stop the bearish tone that has suddenly enveloped the market. There are many negatives out there that currently pressure the market.  If all these things work out negatively, prices could indeed find the 50’s. If, however, some of these worries turn out better than expected, prices could recover. What we hope will materialize as a “bounce” or consolidation at the 60-cent level would be the markets way of saying enough is enough—for now.

To read and/or download the full report in PDF format including graphics, go to: http://www.caes.uga.edu/departments/agecon/extension/newsletters/CMN.html

To read the full report on-line, click below.

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Cotton Marketing News– September 14, 2015

September Numbers Not Likely to Move the Needle

Cotton growers continue to wait on anything that would push prices to the desired 70-cent level or better.  To date, little marketing or price protection has taken place as producers seem willing to wait it out. After the shocking numbers in the August report, USDA’s September report seemed by most observers to be an opportunity for USDA to “correct” itself.  Thus, there has been and continues to be a lot of uncertainty around this market.  As we move closer to harvest time, it looks like the September numbers (released last Friday) are not likely to do much in the way of moving prices out of the 62 to 67 cent range we’ve been in for the past 11 months.

To read more, click on the link below.  To read and/or download the PDF version including graphics, go to:  http://www.caes.uga.edu/departments/agecon/extension/newsletters/CMN.html

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Cotton Marketing News– August 27, 2015

Where Does This Wild Season Now Go From Here?

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics

Prices have been vulnerable to what seems to be a constant barrage of economic and policy forces.  Cotton growers, for the most part, have been patiently waiting on prices to reach 70 cents.  Given all the factors that have been in play, things could have turned out worse, but so far cotton seems to have weathered the storm.  Prices are not where we want them to be but so far we’ve stayed out of the 50’s. This week’s implosion was due to concern over China’s economy, losses in the Chinese stock market, and related fears and concerns that caused the US stock market to also tumble. All eyes continue to be on China mill use and crop size.  With the events of this week, everybody is “super sensitive” to China.  Sensitivities aside, the same issues still apply—prices will depend on China’s demand for imports (quality cotton more precisely).

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Cotton Marketing News– July 24, 2015

The Path to 70 Cents Still Negotiable- But Is Now a Rockier One

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
University of Georgia

Growers waiting on 70 cents, some/most are still waiting while others may have taken some sort of action already at the 67 to 68-cent area. The goal of 70 cents is still possible but each passing day likely lowers the odds that we can get there—and that needs to be taken into account. Not all is lost—we just need to make sure we know what we’re doing, why, what our alternatives are, and act accordingly.  The price outlook continues to be a mix of both potentially bearish and bullish factors.

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Cotton Marketing News– July 13, 2015

Prices Now Tracking Back Down the Same Row

Don Shurley

University of Georgia

Dec15 futures “broke out” to the 68-cent level back on June 30th but have since retreated back to their previous old 62 to 67-cent range. Likely, prices are now even more firmly entrenched in a tighter band of mostly 64 to 67 cents.  Prices will still move on US crop conditions and production estimates, export reports, and news of sales from China’s stockpile.  In that regard, news this past week was a mixed bag but mostly, not good for prices.  In short, USDA’s numbers released on Friday (July 10th) were very clearly not what the market was expecting.

To continue reading on-line, click on the link below.

 

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Cotton Marketing News– June 30, 2015

Acreage Estimate Comes in Low- But Now There’s Even More to the Story

June 30, 2015
Don Shurley

The long-awaited and much anticipated first estimates of actual crop acres planted for 2015 are out.  The estimate is 8.998 million acres; lower than even the lowest of most pre-report estimates.  If realized, this would be the lowest US cotton plantings since 1983.  Is this going to finally get the bulls going?  Maybe.  But, acres planted don’t make a crop.  Acres harvested and yields make the crop.  With currently very favorable moisture conditions across much of the Cotton Belt and should conditions continue favorable, this crop could yield high enough to offset some of this acreage decline.

Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here– http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn06302015.pdf to download and view in PDF format.

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Cotton Marketing News– May 26, 2015

Cotton Remains in the Range, but Tempts Downside Support
May 26, 2015
Don Shurley

New crop Dec15 futures hover just above 64 cents.  With the ceiling at 67 cents seemingly pretty firm and with the “uptrend of lows” if it holds, the price range is tightening.  There are several uncertainties as we move forward and growers are asking the question “Are we going to reach 70 cents?”  No one knows the answer to that question but there are several factors that will determine which way we go.  The situation is volatile and yet unknown.  Cotton production in 2015 will require patience and a clear understanding of the risks and careful evaluation of marketing tools and choices.

Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn05262015.pdf  to download in PDF format.

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2014 Georgia Quality Cotton Awards

The 2014 Georgia Quality Cotton Awards will be given during the 2015 Georgia Cotton Conference and Cotton Production Workshops, January 28, 2015 at the University of Georgia Tifton Conference Center.  Nominations are due not later than January 21, 2015.  Click below for more information and to download a copy of the nomination form.

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Cotton Marketing News– October 10, 2014

Cotton prices (Dec14 futures) bumped 65 cents this week. After recently falling to the 61-cent level, prices have made a modest but still welcomed recovery. The resistance or “ceiling” at the 67 to 68 cent area is likely pretty firm and will be difficult to negotiate in the near term without major changes in the supply/demand picture. Likewise, any “floor” appears fragile and we can only hope the 61-cent area holds.

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Cotton Marketing News– September 26, 2014

The last 2 weeks have not been pretty.  Prices have tumbled to levels not seen in 5 years.  Since recovering to 68 cents on September 11 and 12, prices (Dec14 futures) have lost over 6 ½ cents (10%) through yesterday—closing at 61.4 cents.  Prices are up just a bit so far today.  We all agree this is not a good time to be trying to sell cotton.  Considering the fact that cotton was once at 80 cents or better, nothing will appear relatively attractive at this point; but growers nevertheless need to carefully consider their options.  The big news events over the past week or more have been China.  Details have begun to emerge about China’s price support policy and imports.  The impact of these policies is unknown and we do not yet know full details.  Both have been, at least initially, interpreted as negative for global and US cotton prices.Neither of these policies directly addresses the still-remaining elephant in the room—China’s looming 60+ million bale stockpile.

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