Category Archives: Economics, Marketing, Policy
Cotton Marketing News– August 27, 2015
Where Does This Wild Season Now Go From Here?
Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
Prices have been vulnerable to what seems to be a constant barrage of economic and policy forces. Cotton growers, for the most part, have been patiently waiting on prices to reach 70 cents. Given all the factors that have been in play, things could have turned out worse, but so far cotton seems to have weathered the storm. Prices are not where we want them to be but so far we’ve stayed out of the 50’s. This week’s implosion was due to concern over China’s economy, losses in the Chinese stock market, and related fears and concerns that caused the US stock market to also tumble. All eyes continue to be on China mill use and crop size. With the events of this week, everybody is “super sensitive” to China. Sensitivities aside, the same issues still apply—prices will depend on China’s demand for imports (quality cotton more precisely).
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Cotton Marketing News– July 24, 2015
The Path to 70 Cents Still Negotiable- But Is Now a Rockier One
Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
University of Georgia
Growers waiting on 70 cents, some/most are still waiting while others may have taken some sort of action already at the 67 to 68-cent area. The goal of 70 cents is still possible but each passing day likely lowers the odds that we can get there—and that needs to be taken into account. Not all is lost—we just need to make sure we know what we’re doing, why, what our alternatives are, and act accordingly. The price outlook continues to be a mix of both potentially bearish and bullish factors.
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Cotton Marketing News– July 13, 2015
Prices Now Tracking Back Down the Same Row
Don Shurley
University of Georgia
Dec15 futures “broke out” to the 68-cent level back on June 30th but have since retreated back to their previous old 62 to 67-cent range. Likely, prices are now even more firmly entrenched in a tighter band of mostly 64 to 67 cents. Prices will still move on US crop conditions and production estimates, export reports, and news of sales from China’s stockpile. In that regard, news this past week was a mixed bag but mostly, not good for prices. In short, USDA’s numbers released on Friday (July 10th) were very clearly not what the market was expecting.
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Cotton Marketing News– June 30, 2015
Acreage Estimate Comes in Low- But Now There’s Even More to the Story
June 30, 2015
Don Shurley
The long-awaited and much anticipated first estimates of actual crop acres planted for 2015 are out. The estimate is 8.998 million acres; lower than even the lowest of most pre-report estimates. If realized, this would be the lowest US cotton plantings since 1983. Is this going to finally get the bulls going? Maybe. But, acres planted don’t make a crop. Acres harvested and yields make the crop. With currently very favorable moisture conditions across much of the Cotton Belt and should conditions continue favorable, this crop could yield high enough to offset some of this acreage decline.
Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here– http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn06302015.pdf to download and view in PDF format.
Cotton Marketing News– May 26, 2015
Cotton Remains in the Range, but Tempts Downside Support
May 26, 2015
Don Shurley
New crop Dec15 futures hover just above 64 cents. With the ceiling at 67 cents seemingly pretty firm and with the “uptrend of lows” if it holds, the price range is tightening. There are several uncertainties as we move forward and growers are asking the question “Are we going to reach 70 cents?” No one knows the answer to that question but there are several factors that will determine which way we go. The situation is volatile and yet unknown. Cotton production in 2015 will require patience and a clear understanding of the risks and careful evaluation of marketing tools and choices.
Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn05262015.pdf to download in PDF format.
2015 Cotton Enterprise Budgets Posted
The 2015 Cotton Enterprise Budgets are posted. They are available in both a spreadsheet (Excel file) and printable (PDF file) format. The 2014 Cotton Enterprise … Continue reading
2014 Georgia Quality Cotton Awards
The 2014 Georgia Quality Cotton Awards will be given during the 2015 Georgia Cotton Conference and Cotton Production Workshops, January 28, 2015 at the University of Georgia Tifton Conference Center. Nominations are due not later than January 21, 2015. Click below for more information and to download a copy of the nomination form.
2015 Georgia Cotton Commission 8th Annual Meeting and UGA Cotton Production Workshop
The Georgia Cotton Commission’s Board of Directors is pleased to announce the Commission’s 8th Annual Meeting scheduled for Wednesday, January 28, 2015, at the UGA … Continue reading
Cotton Marketing News– October 10, 2014
Cotton prices (Dec14 futures) bumped 65 cents this week. After recently falling to the 61-cent level, prices have made a modest but still welcomed recovery. The resistance or “ceiling” at the 67 to 68 cent area is likely pretty firm and will be difficult to negotiate in the near term without major changes in the supply/demand picture. Likewise, any “floor” appears fragile and we can only hope the 61-cent area holds.
2014 Cotton Varieties and Technologies Planted in Georgia
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DP1252B2RF was the most popular cotton variety planted in Georgia for 2014. 2014 was the second consecutive year that DP1252B2RF topped all other varieties planted—accounting for 23.6% of acres planted this year and 20.6% last year.
DP1050B2RF was the second most popular variety for 2014 with 18.5% of acreage planted to that variety. This was the third consecutive year that DP1050B2RF ranked second among all varieties planted after being the top variety in 2011.
The GLB2 technology gained a significant share of Georgia acreage this year. ST6448GLB2 ranked third among varieties planted and accounted for 14.6% of acreage. This compares to only 3.9% of acreage last year. Another GLB2 variety, FM1944GLB2, accounted for another 5.4% of Georgia acreage this year.