Category Archives: Economics, Marketing, Policy

Cotton Marketing News, December 22, 2015

Ending the Year With a More Positive Outlook

At present, the outlook for 2016 is much the same as for the 2015 crop.  With Dec16 again in the 60’s, this may not convince farmers to plant much cotton.  But 2016 corn and soybean prices are not as attractive relative to cotton as this year.  Also, let’s not forget that at least ½ million acres intended for cotton in Texas was abandoned or switched to another crop due to rain and delayed planting.  Also, the large shift to peanuts in GA may not be repeated to that magnitude due to crop rotation constraints.

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2015 Georgia Quality Cotton Awards

The 2015 Georgia Quality Cotton Awards will be given on January 27, 2016 during the Georgia Cotton Commission Annual Meeting at the UGA Conference Center in Tifton.  This will be the 11th year of this awards program to recognize producers and gins of high-quality cotton in Georgia.  The awards are sponsored by Bayer CropScience and the Georgia Cotton Commission and administered by the UGA Cotton Team.  Nominations are due not later than Janury 19, 2016.  For more information, contact your local County Extension Agent.  Click on the link below to download instructions and the nomination form.

2015 GQCA Nomination Form

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2014 Georgia Cotton Research-Extension Report

The 2014 Research and Extension Report is now available.  The Report contains results of research conducted by UGA cotton researchers, Extension specialists, and county agents during 2014.  To view, download, and/or print the Report, go to the menu in the left margin of this Home Page and scroll down to Cotton Resources.  Click on Research-Extension Report. 

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Cotton Marketing News– September 24, 2015

Cotton Reaches New Lows on Lack of Demand

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics

Undoubtedly, cotton prices are at a fork in the road. Will prices be able to hold the 60-cent level and perhaps eventually recover to move higher or will prices erode further into the 50’s? No one is sure of the answer but most seem to agree that until fresh/new buying appears, it is difficult to stop the bearish tone that has suddenly enveloped the market. There are many negatives out there that currently pressure the market.  If all these things work out negatively, prices could indeed find the 50’s. If, however, some of these worries turn out better than expected, prices could recover. What we hope will materialize as a “bounce” or consolidation at the 60-cent level would be the markets way of saying enough is enough—for now.

To read and/or download the full report in PDF format including graphics, go to: http://www.caes.uga.edu/departments/agecon/extension/newsletters/CMN.html

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Cotton Marketing News– September 14, 2015

September Numbers Not Likely to Move the Needle

Cotton growers continue to wait on anything that would push prices to the desired 70-cent level or better.  To date, little marketing or price protection has taken place as producers seem willing to wait it out. After the shocking numbers in the August report, USDA’s September report seemed by most observers to be an opportunity for USDA to “correct” itself.  Thus, there has been and continues to be a lot of uncertainty around this market.  As we move closer to harvest time, it looks like the September numbers (released last Friday) are not likely to do much in the way of moving prices out of the 62 to 67 cent range we’ve been in for the past 11 months.

To read more, click on the link below.  To read and/or download the PDF version including graphics, go to:  http://www.caes.uga.edu/departments/agecon/extension/newsletters/CMN.html

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Cotton Marketing News– August 27, 2015

Where Does This Wild Season Now Go From Here?

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics

Prices have been vulnerable to what seems to be a constant barrage of economic and policy forces.  Cotton growers, for the most part, have been patiently waiting on prices to reach 70 cents.  Given all the factors that have been in play, things could have turned out worse, but so far cotton seems to have weathered the storm.  Prices are not where we want them to be but so far we’ve stayed out of the 50’s. This week’s implosion was due to concern over China’s economy, losses in the Chinese stock market, and related fears and concerns that caused the US stock market to also tumble. All eyes continue to be on China mill use and crop size.  With the events of this week, everybody is “super sensitive” to China.  Sensitivities aside, the same issues still apply—prices will depend on China’s demand for imports (quality cotton more precisely).

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Cotton Marketing News– July 24, 2015

The Path to 70 Cents Still Negotiable- But Is Now a Rockier One

Don Shurley, Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
University of Georgia

Growers waiting on 70 cents, some/most are still waiting while others may have taken some sort of action already at the 67 to 68-cent area. The goal of 70 cents is still possible but each passing day likely lowers the odds that we can get there—and that needs to be taken into account. Not all is lost—we just need to make sure we know what we’re doing, why, what our alternatives are, and act accordingly.  The price outlook continues to be a mix of both potentially bearish and bullish factors.

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Cotton Marketing News– July 13, 2015

Prices Now Tracking Back Down the Same Row

Don Shurley

University of Georgia

Dec15 futures “broke out” to the 68-cent level back on June 30th but have since retreated back to their previous old 62 to 67-cent range. Likely, prices are now even more firmly entrenched in a tighter band of mostly 64 to 67 cents.  Prices will still move on US crop conditions and production estimates, export reports, and news of sales from China’s stockpile.  In that regard, news this past week was a mixed bag but mostly, not good for prices.  In short, USDA’s numbers released on Friday (July 10th) were very clearly not what the market was expecting.

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Cotton Marketing News– June 30, 2015

Acreage Estimate Comes in Low- But Now There’s Even More to the Story

June 30, 2015
Don Shurley

The long-awaited and much anticipated first estimates of actual crop acres planted for 2015 are out.  The estimate is 8.998 million acres; lower than even the lowest of most pre-report estimates.  If realized, this would be the lowest US cotton plantings since 1983.  Is this going to finally get the bulls going?  Maybe.  But, acres planted don’t make a crop.  Acres harvested and yields make the crop.  With currently very favorable moisture conditions across much of the Cotton Belt and should conditions continue favorable, this crop could yield high enough to offset some of this acreage decline.

Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here– http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn06302015.pdf to download and view in PDF format.

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Cotton Marketing News– May 26, 2015

Cotton Remains in the Range, but Tempts Downside Support
May 26, 2015
Don Shurley

New crop Dec15 futures hover just above 64 cents.  With the ceiling at 67 cents seemingly pretty firm and with the “uptrend of lows” if it holds, the price range is tightening.  There are several uncertainties as we move forward and growers are asking the question “Are we going to reach 70 cents?”  No one knows the answer to that question but there are several factors that will determine which way we go.  The situation is volatile and yet unknown.  Cotton production in 2015 will require patience and a clear understanding of the risks and careful evaluation of marketing tools and choices.

Click on the link below to continue reading on-line or click here http://www.ugacotton.com/vault/file/cmn05262015.pdf  to download in PDF format.

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