So Much For the 18 Million Bale Scenario and Those Higher Prices
Don Shurley
Cotton Economist/Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics
The market certainly didn’t like this week’s numbers. Dec futures had improved and trending up since mid-July—breaking back above 70 cents on August 2. This week, prices danced around the 71-cent mark until yesterday’s report—dropping about 2 cents on the report and limit down 3 cents for the day. Some observers are convinced the US crop will only get smaller. All we really know is that the market has to digest and make what it will of the 20.55 number for now. If the September numbers continue to validate a 20+ million bale crop, then prices could decline further. If the crop does get smaller, the 68 to 70 cent level or better should hold.
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